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Barbora Meszaros
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Euro struggles as meltdown in Ukraine talks drives flight to safety

A rather anodyne week in currency trading ended in a dollar buying frenzy on Friday.
FX Market Updates
A rather anodyne week in currency trading ended in a dollar buying frenzy on Friday.

Investors reacted to the shocking sight of open bickering and bellowing at what was supposed to be a photo op in the Oval Office of the White House. The spectacle threw into doubt not only the Ukraine agreement, but more generally the entire post-war architecture and the US commitment to worldwide security under Trump. There was a surprising split in markets, in that US stocks managed to rally towards the end of the Friday session, even as currency investors fled to the safe-havens, which included the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. The key for this week will be to see how this dichotomy is resolved.

This week promises to be a very volatile one. In addition to the aftershocks to the disaster in the White House, Trump has stated that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect on Tuesday, although markets appear to be bracing for the possibility of eleventh hour deals. Eurozone inflation figures on Monday, then the ECB meeting on Thursday and the January US payrolls report on Friday, will also be key. Ordinarily, we would focus mostly on the latter, to see if it confirms the signs of weakness in the US economy. Political headlines are likely to be as market moving in the current environment, however.